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ECB's Lagarde: bond selloff will slow growth and inflation pass-through more than projected
ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that financing conditions have tightened as long-term rates rose notably since the last meeting, which will slow growth and reduce pass-through (of higher fuel prices) by more than projected in the ECB's September exercise. Reuters reports the ECB has raised rates twice in the last four months and that a further hike in December is expected (a market expectation, not a decision), which would take the policy rate to 2.75%. Context only, not a forecast.
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Global stocks slip after tech selloff as markets weigh hot US inflation and rate-hike bets
Global stocks fell modestly on Friday after a tech- and chip-led selloff driven by concerns over higher interest rates and AI-boom financing; the US 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.09% and the dollar was on track for a weekly decline. Traders increased bets on further US rate hikes after stronger-than-expected inflation data: September CPI rose 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%) per CNBC. The next FOMC meeting is Oct 27-28; rate odds are market pricing, not Fed decisions.
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Bank of England's Bailey: second-round inflation effects 'quite subdued' so far, but too early to be sure
Governor Andrew Bailey said it is too early to draw firm conclusions, but evidence so far of second-round effects from energy prices has been 'quite subdued'. A Reuters poll (Oct 12-14) found 54 of 63 economists expect the BoE to raise Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.0% at its Nov 5 meeting; this is an economist forecast, not a decision. Bank Rate is currently 3.75%.
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IMF: global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 as economies diverge
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook projects global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026 and rising to 3.4% in 2027, with global inflation at 4.7% in 2026. It describes a widening divide between economies benefiting from the tech upturn and energy importers outside it, with risks tilted to the downside. For crypto, macro conditions and rate expectations remain key context; this is not a forecast.
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