China · Inflation & data · Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

China's official PMIs fall below 50 in October as factory and building activity slow

Published 31 Oct 2026, 02:30 CET

Editor: Hedal Kolanyi / AI-assisted

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Summary: China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, and the non-manufacturing index also dropped below the 50 line. The statistics bureau said some of the drop came from orders placed early, before the National Day holiday.

What happened

The Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing published the October survey on Saturday, 31 October 2026. A reading above 50 signals expansion compared with the previous month, and below 50 signals contraction.

Manufacturing PMI: 49.3, down 0.8 points. The production index fell 1.9 points to 49.8 and new orders fell 1.1 points to 49.4. New export orders were 48.7, down from 50.0.
By company size: large manufacturers stayed in expansion at 50.2, while medium-sized and small firms were at 48.4 and 47.5.
Prices: the index for raw material purchase prices fell 4.0 points to 56.8, and the index for factory-gate prices fell 2.3 points to 51.7. Both are still above 50.
Non-manufacturing: the business activity index fell 0.5 points to 49.7. Services were at exactly 50.0, while construction dropped 2.3 points to 48.0.
Composite output index: 49.7, down 1.0 point.

Background

In the NBS commentary, Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, pointed to demand released early, before the October holiday, and a changeable international environment. Huo said high-tech manufacturing (51.3) and equipment manufacturing (50.6) stayed in expansion. Lower prices for some non-ferrous metals pulled the price indices down. However, both price indices for petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and for chemical fibre, rubber and plastic products, stayed above 60 as international crude prices kept rising. In services, Huo said the financial sector's index fell sharply, and this was the main reason the services reading eased.

The surveys cover about 3,200 manufacturers and 4,300 non-manufacturing firms, according to the NBS. Xinhua reported the same headline figures.

Why it matters for markets and crypto

Purchasing managers' indices are among the earliest monthly signals of how China's economy is doing. They feed into expectations for trade, commodity demand and policy support, which can influence financial markets in general, including digital assets. This data relates to the wider economy and does not express a view on any asset.

What to watch next

According to the NBS 2026 release calendar (dates are marked as preliminary):

9 November 2026: October consumer and producer price indices.
16 November 2026: October activity data, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.
30 November 2026: November PMI.

Sources

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