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United Kingdom · Central banks · Inflation & data · Source: bankofengland.co.uk · Featured 6 Nov 2026
Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4% as energy costs lift inflation risks
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Editor: Hedal Kolanyi / AI-assisted
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Summary: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4% at its meeting ending 4 November 2026, by an 8–1 vote. UK CPI inflation was 3.5% in September and is projected to reach around 5% by mid-2027.
What happened
In the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, the MPC said it voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%. One member preferred a 0.5 percentage point rise to 4.25%. The Bank’s Bank Rate page, also dated 5 November, confirms the decision and notes inflation at 3.5% against a 2% target.
The Committee said the Middle East conflict is in its ninth month and global energy prices have continued to rise. It judged that inflationary pressure in the pipeline is now sufficient to warrant a rate increase, while recent activity data have generally been stronger than expected. The minutes state that Brent crude and UK natural gas futures over the 15 working days to 27 October averaged $108 per barrel and 216 pence per therm — 38% and 81% above July Monetary Policy Report levels.
Bank staff’s near-term projection, based on those energy prices, was for CPI inflation around 4½% in 2027 Q1 and around 5% in 2027 Q2. The Committee said evidence of knock-on effects on other prices and wages remains limited so far, but that the risk of second-round effects has risen.
Background
Governor Andrew Bailey said on the Bank Rate page: “Today’s increase shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes. But, unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem likely to be the last increase.” Catherine L Mann voted for a 50-basis-point rise. UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes stood at £362 billion on 4 November. Minutes for the meeting ending 16 December are due on 17 December 2026.
Why it matters for markets and crypto
UK policy rates affect domestic borrowing costs and feed into global interest-rate expectations, which can influence general risk appetite across financial markets. This article does not discuss any specific asset and makes no forecast. The data relates to the wider economy.
What to watch next
- 17 December 2026: Next Bank Rate decision and Monetary Policy Summary/minutes.
- Incoming UK CPI prints and energy futures paths that the MPC says it will monitor for second-round effects.
Sources
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026 (5 November 2026)
- Bank of England, Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision (5 November 2026)
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